Enrollment: Headcount Up; Certified Down Slightly

By Superintendent of Hudson Community School District, Dr. Anthony Voss 

    October is a very busy month for school administrators in Iowa, as a plethora of  state reporting occurs. None may be more important than certifying our enrollment. October 1  is the Official Count Day, and that is the day we take a census of the number of students we  have in our school district. This enrollment census is critical because it provides the first key  variable necessary for budgeting the 2026-2027 school year. Once we have taken that count  on October 1, the following two weeks are used to reconcile those numbers with other school  districts, ensuring students who are open enrolled, attending private schools, or who are  homeschooled are property accounted for. Today then, October 15th is the date those  numbers are certified with the state. To view the complete report, please follow this link.  

When considering preschool through twelfth grade enrollment, the district is currently  serving 924 students, which is slightly less than last year. Kindergarten through twelfth grade  enrollment on October 1 was 877 students, which was less than projected through a student  conducted by RSP and Associates. That study predicted enrollment would be 893. Although  this difference is notable, the headcount, or number of students attending Hudson School is up  

8 students from last year at the same time period. Up is good, but this less than expected and  could be indicative of a softening economy.  

Certified enrollment describes students with a physical address of Hudson and includes  students who attend school in Hudson or open enroll to another public-school district. Our  certified number is down 8.54 students from last year. The basic calculation is the number of  resident students attending in the local district, plus the number of resident students attending  another public-school district. The BEDS count, on the other hand considers students who are  served in the school district. The basic calculation here is resident students attending our  school district, plus those who are open enrolled into Hudson. In this case, there is a net  increase of 5.10 students over last year from 876.64 to 881.74, or a .58% enrollment increase.  This is less than expected.  

The number of students open enrolling out of Hudson has also increased from 69 to 73  with just over half choosing Cedar Falls (33). The second spot belongs to a host of online  options, with (13) Hudson residents attending those programs, followed by (12) in Gladbrook Reinbeck. There are 185 students open enrolling into Hudson, compared to 170 from a year  ago. Waterloo continues to lead, with (117) students open enrolling into Hudson, up from (114)  a year ago. Our data suggests (11) students taking advantage of the ESA program, up from (5)  one a year ago. The primary takeaway is that a net positive of 113 students (those open  enrolled in minus those open enrolled out) is a very good sign for the district.  

We had 41 students who were enrolled last year but have subsequently transferred out  or moved to another school district. This compares to 39 students who moved out last year  and would suggest a more transient population of learners.  

Elementary grade levels remain the largest, with 4 sections per grade level from grades  K-3. Even while considering a slight dip in enrollment this current year, the district anticipates a  four-section grade level pattern to continue matriculating across the district. Even so, a  deliberate decision has been made to cap open enrollment. This is being done purposefully in  order to accommodate the increase in resident ‘attending’ students. The strategy being  employed will be to counterbalance residential enrollment with open enrollment. As residential  enrollment increases, open enrollment will decrease; which is illustrated in this report. While the  challenges of staffing remain real, the fact is that residential enrollment growth will undoubtedly  add additional strain to our system.  

Enrollment projections used in this study are calculated based on a cohort methodology  that uses a five-year rolling average to determine kindergarten size. Over the last 5 years, the  kindergarten has averaged 76 students; while in the last 10 years it has averaged 65.5. Based  on both residential enrollment growth coupled with open enrollment, a projection of 76 seems  to be right, particularly since open enrollment from Waterloo is not anticipated to drop off. With 

this methodology, estimates from prior years are left static since there is no algorithm to  accurately predict transfers in or out of the district. If these projections were come to fruition,  we will reach a current high-water mark of 970 in 2030-2031.  

However, during the last school year, the school district contracted with RSP and  Associates to conduct an enrollment study for the school district. As mentioned in the opening  paragraph, this estimation was slightly off what was predicted. Yet, it is important to note the  RSP work suggest K-12 enrollment topping 1,011 during the 2029-2030 academic year. This  should not be interpreted as one model being superior to the other, but they instead should be  viewed as complementary instruments that utilize different methodologies. While this analysis  is markedly different from the cohort methodology deployed by today's report, both models  suggest rapid enrollment growth; particularly evidenced by smaller class sizes graduating from  high school and larger class sizes entering kindergarten. To compare the results of both  reports, please visit the 'About Us' section of our website.